Forge upside capped at $5.60 in a Clough takeover situation?

The Australian Financial Review published an article yesterday about the likelihood of Clough Limited (ASX:CLO) bidding for the rest of Forge Group (ASX:FGE). I guess the market is excited about the possibility and the share price has been sharply up over the last couple of days.

There's a few dates that may be worth keeping an eye on for shareholders:

What does this all mean?

Directors have the choice of exiting very soon at $5.60/share. 2-6 January is of importance here. If they do decide to sell up, and Clough decide to launch a full takeover quickly thereafter, the offer will unlikely be over $5.60. I can't see shareholders getting a better deal than the founding directors.

Wait and see shall we?

I did end up purchasing some stock since my last post on the company. The winning of $200m FMG's Solomon Hub contract was a biggie and potential $250m+ share of the Roy Hill project adds a lot of excitement.

FGE was up over 5% today to $4.85